Great Endeavour Can Land Hennessy Gold Cup
Although the Paul Nicholls trained
Aiteen Thirtythree is likely to go off as the favourite for this Saturday’s
Hennessy Gold Cup, he will by no means be a particularly strong one. The
Hennessy this year has attracted a strong field, which includes, second year
chasers, Grade One winners and seasoned handicappers many of which are in
with decent chances to win this most prestigious of Handicap Chases on the
UK National Hunt
Racing Calendar.
It is not a bad race for favourites,
with two outrights and one joint winning the race in the last ten years and
the vast majority of the other winners in that time frame have usually been
well backed. The only recent outsider to have won was Madison Du Berlais at
25/1 but as most of us know he was a much better horse than that price
suggested.
Obviously weight will be a vitally
important aspect to consider but looking back at the past winners tells us
that weight has only been a factor for those at the very top of the
handicap. Denman of course has won race twice with 11-12 on his back but he
was not quite up to that 12 months ago when he had to settle for third place
behind the winner, Diamond Harry with 10-00 and second place Burton Port who
was carrying 10-01. Trabolgen, winner in 2005 also had top weight, but by
and large the winner is a horse carrying between 10-12 and 11-04 although
this is far from an established trend.
The 11/2 favourite, Aiteen
Thirtythree appears to be the best of three Nicholls entries as this is the
mount chosen by stable jockey, Ruby Walsh. He will have 10-10 on his back
which is certainly competitive. This is particularly so given his three
length defeat by Somersby (OR 166) in the Betfair Graduation Chase at level
weights at Kempton Park on the last day of October which strongly suggests
that he is on a very good mark of 152.
Next in the betting with odds of 7/1
comes the David Pipe trained Great Endeavour and the Donald McCain entry
Wymott. Great Endeavour of course has already claimed one big prize this
month already after he won the Grade 3 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham a
fortnight ago. He will be looking to emulate Celestial Gold who is the only
horse to have won the Paddy Power and Hennessy in the same season. That feat
was achieved in 2004 by Celestial Gold, who was owned by David Johnson,
trained by Martin Pipe and was ridden by Timmy Murphy virtually the same
combination that are responsible for Great Endeavour. It will be a ‘tall
order’ but this horse looked in magnificent condition when winning the
‘Paddy Power’ and would have to be a very strong consideration here.
Wymott, having chalked up three wins
from three starts in either Beginners or Novices chases last season, had his
colours lowered when pulling up in the Grade One RSA Chase at the Cheltenham
Festival in March. He will be making his seasonal debut on Saturday and has
been well backed all week to return to winning ways. The stable is in great
form, but it is interesting to note that stable jockey has been sent to
Newcastle on Saturday rather than Newbury to ride Overturn in the Fighting
Fifth Hurdle, hence the reason why Graham Lee gets the ride.
Michel Le Bon, the second string
from the Nicholls stable is an interesting runner who has been off course
for two years following an injury sustained after winning a Grade 2 Novice
Chase at this fixture. He was being touted at the time as a potential RSA
Chase winner at the 2012
Cheltenham Festival which is presumably why the punters have been very
keen to back him to win this. If he is back to his best he will come into
the race on a more than decent mark but his two years of race inactivity is
not particularly encouraging. He is currently an 8/1 shot to win on
Saturday.
Also at 8/1 is the Ian Williams
trained Wayward Prince, who finished third behind Bostons Angel in the RSA
Chase at the Cheltenham Festival back in March. A Grade one winner over
hurdles and a Grade 2 Novices Chase win under his belt, this seven year old
has real promise. Williams has confirmed that he is in great form at home;
he believes he is on fair mark and he will be reunited with jockey, Dougie
Costello who rode him to three victories last season.
All things considered there is
little doubt that this latest Hennessy Gold Cup renewal will produce a
cracking race, as mentioned above there are a number in with chances but
sticking the ‘old neck out’ this author will plump for Great Endeavour to
land a historic November double.